Bahia de Feira U20 2–1 Catuense U20: Result & Stats

Bahia de Feira U20

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Catuense U20

5/11/2024

Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Jodilton Souza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bahia de Feira U2052%

×Draw20%

Catuense U2027%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bahia de Feira U20Expected goals in this matchCatuense U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.61

Bahia de Feira U20

2.27

Catuense U20

1.61

Bahia de Feira U20 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.46

creates per match

1.46

1.77

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

Bahia de Feira U20

1.46

Catuense U20

1.46

allows per match

Bahia de Feira U20

1.77

Catuense U20

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahia de Feira U20+0.00on par

Catuense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia de Feira U20 ↓

Catuense U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Bahia de Feira U20 or draw

73%

Bahia de Feira U20 or Catuense U20

80%

Draw or Catuense U20

48%

Winning margin

Bahia de Feira U20 wins by 2+

32%

Catuense U20 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bahia de Feira U20 1+ goals

90%

Bahia de Feira U20 2+ goals

66%

Bahia de Feira U20 3+ goals

39%

Catuense U20 1+ goals

80%

Catuense U20 2+ goals

48%

Catuense U20 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Bahia de Feira U20 (draw refunded)

66%

Catuense U20 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia de Feira U20 at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Catuense U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia de Feira U20 attack 1.46 + Catuense U20 defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.27

Catuense U20 attack 1.46 + Bahia de Feira U20 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bahia de Feira U20 scores more

52%

level

20%

Catuense U20 scores more

27%

Bahia de Feira U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bahia de Feira U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff