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Bahardar vs Sidama Bunna — Premier League 2019

Bahardar
Bahardar
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sidama Bunna
Sidama Bunna
1/15/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Bahardar37%
×Draw29%
Sidama Bunna34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahardar
1.12
Sidama Bunna
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 102 away

creates per match

Bahardar
1.12
Sidama Bunna
1.19

allows per match

Bahardar
0.94
Sidama Bunna
1.11

finishing

Bahardar+0.00on par
Sidama Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahardar ↓

Sidama Bunna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bahardar or draw
66%
Bahardar or Sidama Bunna
71%
Draw or Sidama Bunna
63%

Winning margin

Bahardar wins by 2+
15%
Sidama Bunna wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bahardar 1+ goals
67%
Bahardar 2+ goals
31%
Bahardar 3+ goals
10%
Sidama Bunna 1+ goals
65%
Sidama Bunna 2+ goals
29%
Sidama Bunna 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bahardar (draw refunded)
52%
Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahardar at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Sidama Bunna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.11 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahardar attack 1.12 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Sidama Bunna attack 1.19 + Bahardar defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bahardar scores more
37%
level
29%
Sidama Bunna scores more
34%

Bahardar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bahardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bahardar 0 – 2 Sidama Bunna

Sidama Bunna beat Bahardar 2-0 in Premier League on January 15, 2024.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.