Bahardar 3–0 Addis Ababa Ketema: Result & Stats

Bahardar

FT

3 – 0

Addis Ababa Ketema

10/19/2021

Premier League · Round 1Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bahardar40%

×Draw28%

Addis Ababa Ketema32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BahardarExpected goals in this matchAddis Ababa Ketema

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.07

Bahardar

1.23

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.07

Bahardar creates 15% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 15 away

1.12

creates per match

1.20

0.94

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Bahardar

1.12

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.20

allows per match

Bahardar

0.94

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahardar+0.00on par

Addis Ababa Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahardar ↓

Addis Ababa Ketema →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bahardar or draw

68%

Bahardar or Addis Ababa Ketema

72%

Draw or Addis Ababa Ketema

60%

Winning margin

Bahardar wins by 2+

17%

Addis Ababa Ketema wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bahardar 1+ goals

71%

Bahardar 2+ goals

35%

Bahardar 3+ goals

13%

Addis Ababa Ketema 1+ goals

66%

Addis Ababa Ketema 2+ goals

29%

Addis Ababa Ketema 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bahardar (draw refunded)

55%

Addis Ababa Ketema (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahardar at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Addis Ababa Ketema away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahardar attack 1.12 + Addis Ababa Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Addis Ababa Ketema attack 1.20 + Bahardar defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bahardar scores more

40%

level

28%

Addis Ababa Ketema scores more

32%

Bahardar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bahardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff