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Bahardar vs Adama Kenema — Premier League 2019

Bahardar
Bahardar
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Adama Kenema
Adama Kenema
2/3/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Bahardar40%
×Draw29%
Adama Kenema31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahardar
1.18
Adama Kenema
0.99

Bahardar creates 19% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 102 away

creates per match

Bahardar
1.12
Adama Kenema
1.04

allows per match

Bahardar
0.94
Adama Kenema
1.23

finishing

Bahardar+0.00on par
Adama Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahardar ↓

Adama Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bahardar or draw
69%
Bahardar or Adama Kenema
71%
Draw or Adama Kenema
60%

Winning margin

Bahardar wins by 2+
17%
Adama Kenema wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bahardar 1+ goals
69%
Bahardar 2+ goals
33%
Bahardar 3+ goals
12%
Adama Kenema 1+ goals
63%
Adama Kenema 2+ goals
26%
Adama Kenema 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bahardar (draw refunded)
57%
Adama Kenema (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahardar at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Adama Kenema away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahardar attack 1.12 + Adama Kenema defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Adama Kenema attack 1.04 + Bahardar defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bahardar scores more
40%
level
29%
Adama Kenema scores more
31%

Bahardar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bahardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bahardar 1 – 2 Adama Kenema

Adama Kenema beat Bahardar 2-1 in Premier League on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.