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Adama Kenema vs Bahardar — Premier League 2019

Adama Kenema
Adama Kenema
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bahardar
Bahardar
6/2/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Adama Kenema30%
×Draw30%
Bahardar40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adama Kenema
0.94
Bahardar
1.14

Bahardar creates 21% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 103 away

creates per match

Adama Kenema
1.02
Bahardar
1.16

allows per match

Adama Kenema
1.11
Bahardar
0.85

finishing

Adama Kenema+0.00on par
Bahardar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adama Kenema ↓

Bahardar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Adama Kenema or draw
60%
Adama Kenema or Bahardar
70%
Draw or Bahardar
70%

Winning margin

Adama Kenema wins by 2+
11%
Bahardar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Adama Kenema 1+ goals
61%
Adama Kenema 2+ goals
24%
Adama Kenema 3+ goals
7%
Bahardar 1+ goals
68%
Bahardar 2+ goals
32%
Bahardar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Adama Kenema (draw refunded)
43%
Bahardar (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adama Kenema at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.11 · 101 matches

Bahardar away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adama Kenema attack 1.02 + Bahardar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.94

Bahardar attack 1.16 + Adama Kenema defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Adama Kenema scores more
30%
level
30%
Bahardar scores more
40%

Bahardar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bahardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adama Kenema vs Bahardar

Adama Kenema beat Bahardar 2-0 in Premier League on June 2, 2025.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.