Bahamas 6–1 Turks and Caicos Islands

Bahamas

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Turks and Caicos Islands

L. St. Fleur 86'

A. Thompson 77'

C. Larson 62', 8', 1'

R. McPhee 40'

Mario 80'

3/16/2019

Friendlies · Friendlies 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bahamas72%

×Draw14%

Turks and Caicos Islands14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BahamasExpected goals in this matchTurks and Caicos Islands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.67

1.67

Bahamas

3.67

Turks and Caicos Islands

1.67

Bahamas creates 120% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

3.67

creates per match

1.67

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Bahamas

3.67

Turks and Caicos Islands

1.67

allows per match

Bahamas

1.67

Turks and Caicos Islands

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahamas+0.00on par

Turks and Caicos Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahamas ↓

Turks and Caicos Islands →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–23%

1–31%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–17%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

58%42%

Double chance

Bahamas or draw

86%

Bahamas or Turks and Caicos Islands

86%

Draw or Turks and Caicos Islands

28%

Winning margin

Bahamas wins by 2+

54%

Turks and Caicos Islands wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bahamas 1+ goals

97%

Bahamas 2+ goals

87%

Bahamas 3+ goals

68%

Turks and Caicos Islands 1+ goals

81%

Turks and Caicos Islands 2+ goals

50%

Turks and Caicos Islands 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Bahamas (draw refunded)

83%

Turks and Caicos Islands (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahamas at home — creates 3.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Turks and Caicos Islands away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahamas attack 3.67 + Turks and Caicos Islands defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.67

Turks and Caicos Islands attack 1.67 + Bahamas defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Bahamas scores more

72%

level

14%

Turks and Caicos Islands scores more

14%

Bahamas at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Bahamas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

8'

40'

62'

77'

80'

86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff