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AS Bamako vs Bakaridjan — Première Division 2019

AS Bamako
AS Bamako
FT
0 – 0
Bakaridjan
Bakaridjan
12/15/2019Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 11Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

AS Bamako42%
×Draw31%
Bakaridjan27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Bamako
1.09
Bakaridjan
0.80

AS Bamako creates 36% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 96 away

creates per match

AS Bamako
1.33
Bakaridjan
1.03

allows per match

AS Bamako
0.58
Bakaridjan
0.85

finishing

AS Bamako+0.00on par
Bakaridjan+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Bamako ↓

Bakaridjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

AS Bamako or draw
73%
AS Bamako or Bakaridjan
69%
Draw or Bakaridjan
58%

Winning margin

AS Bamako wins by 2+
17%
Bakaridjan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AS Bamako 1+ goals
66%
AS Bamako 2+ goals
30%
AS Bamako 3+ goals
10%
Bakaridjan 1+ goals
55%
Bakaridjan 2+ goals
19%
Bakaridjan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AS Bamako (draw refunded)
61%
Bakaridjan (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Bamako at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Bakaridjan away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.85 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Bamako attack 1.33 + Bakaridjan defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.09

Bakaridjan attack 1.03 + AS Bamako defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AS Bamako scores more
42%
level
31%
Bakaridjan scores more
27%

AS Bamako at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AS Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Première Division: AS Bamako 0–0 Bakaridjan

AS Bamako and Bakaridjan drew 0-0 in Première Division on December 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta in Bamako.