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Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) — League #111 2026

Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Caerau (Ely)
Caerau (Ely)
H. Davies 77', 53'
L. Gullick 57'
C. Lewis 19' (pen)
O. Redhead 10'
3/14/2026League #111League #111 · South - 26Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Baglan Dragons31%
×Draw23%
Caerau (Ely)46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baglan Dragons
1.45
Caerau (Ely)
1.80

Caerau (Ely) creates 24% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 20 away

creates per match

Baglan Dragons
1.00
Caerau (Ely)
1.60

allows per match

Baglan Dragons
2.00
Caerau (Ely)
1.90

finishing

Baglan Dragons+0.00on par
Caerau (Ely)+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baglan Dragons ↓

Caerau (Ely) →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Baglan Dragons or draw
54%
Baglan Dragons or Caerau (Ely)
77%
Draw or Caerau (Ely)
69%

Winning margin

Baglan Dragons wins by 2+
14%
Caerau (Ely) wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Baglan Dragons 1+ goals
77%
Baglan Dragons 2+ goals
42%
Baglan Dragons 3+ goals
18%
Caerau (Ely) 1+ goals
83%
Caerau (Ely) 2+ goals
54%
Caerau (Ely) 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Baglan Dragons (draw refunded)
40%
Caerau (Ely) (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baglan Dragons at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Caerau (Ely) away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baglan Dragons attack 1.00 + Caerau (Ely) defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.45

Caerau (Ely) attack 1.60 + Baglan Dragons defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Baglan Dragons scores more
31%
level
23%
Caerau (Ely) scores more
46%

Caerau (Ely) at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Caerau (Ely) will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
O. Redhead
19'
C. LewisPenalty
53'
H. Davies
57'
L. Gullick
77'
H. Davies
85'
J. Davies

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baglan Dragons 0 – 5 Caerau (Ely)

Caerau (Ely) beat Baglan Dragons 5-0 in League #111 on March 14, 2026.

Goals: O. Redhead (10'), C. Lewis (19' pen), H. Davies (53', 77'), L. Gullick (57').

The match was played at Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q in Port Talbot.