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Baghdad vs Zakho — Iraqi League 2025

Baghdad
Baghdad
AWD
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 2
Zakho
Zakho
A. Arzaij 15'
Matheus Lucas 43'
A. Rostam 2'
4/3/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Baghdad30%
×Draw27%
Zakho42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baghdad
1.08
Zakho
1.33

Zakho creates 23% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

creates per match

Baghdad
1.04
Zakho
1.11

allows per match

Baghdad
1.54
Zakho
1.11

finishing

Baghdad+0.00on par
Zakho+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baghdad ↓

Zakho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Baghdad or draw
58%
Baghdad or Zakho
73%
Draw or Zakho
70%

Winning margin

Baghdad wins by 2+
12%
Zakho wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Baghdad 1+ goals
66%
Baghdad 2+ goals
29%
Baghdad 3+ goals
10%
Zakho 1+ goals
74%
Zakho 2+ goals
38%
Zakho 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Baghdad (draw refunded)
42%
Zakho (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baghdad at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Zakho away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baghdad attack 1.04 + Zakho defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Zakho attack 1.11 + Baghdad defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Baghdad scores more
30%
level
27%
Zakho scores more
42%

Zakho at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zakho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
A. Rostam
15'
A. Arzaij
43'
Matheus Lucas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baghdad vs Zakho — Match Preview

Baghdad face Zakho on April 3, 2026 in this Iraqi League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.