Baghdad 3–1 Karbala: Result & Stats | Iraqi League

Baghdad

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Karbala

12/23/2023

Iraqi League · Round 11Amanat Baghdad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Baghdad39%

×Draw30%

Karbala31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaghdadExpected goals in this matchKarbala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.97

Baghdad

1.14

Karbala

0.97

Baghdad creates 18% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 58 away

0.86

creates per match

0.81

1.12

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Baghdad

0.86

Karbala

0.81

allows per match

Baghdad

1.12

Karbala

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baghdad+0.00on par

Karbala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baghdad ↓

Karbala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Baghdad or draw

69%

Baghdad or Karbala

70%

Draw or Karbala

61%

Winning margin

Baghdad wins by 2+

16%

Karbala wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Baghdad 1+ goals

68%

Baghdad 2+ goals

32%

Baghdad 3+ goals

11%

Karbala 1+ goals

62%

Karbala 2+ goals

25%

Karbala 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Baghdad (draw refunded)

56%

Karbala (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baghdad at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.12 · 77 matches

Karbala away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baghdad attack 0.86 + Karbala defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.14

Karbala attack 0.81 + Baghdad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Baghdad scores more

39%

level

30%

Karbala scores more

31%

Baghdad at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baghdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff