Baghdad 2–1 Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya: Result & Stats

Baghdad

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

4/18/2021

Iraqi League · Round 28Amanat Baghdad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Baghdad43%

×Draw29%

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaghdadExpected goals in this matchAlsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.95

Baghdad

1.23

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

0.95

Baghdad creates 29% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 22 away

0.86

creates per match

0.77

1.12

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Baghdad

0.86

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

0.77

allows per match

Baghdad

1.12

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baghdad+0.00on par

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baghdad ↓

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Baghdad or draw

72%

Baghdad or Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

71%

Draw or Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

57%

Winning margin

Baghdad wins by 2+

19%

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Baghdad 1+ goals

71%

Baghdad 2+ goals

35%

Baghdad 3+ goals

13%

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 1+ goals

61%

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 2+ goals

25%

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Baghdad (draw refunded)

60%

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baghdad at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.12 · 77 matches

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baghdad attack 0.86 + Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.23

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya attack 0.77 + Baghdad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Baghdad scores more

43%

level

29%

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya scores more

28%

Baghdad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Baghdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff