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Baghdad vs Al Shorta — Iraqi League 2025

Baghdad
Baghdad
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
Mateus Totô 75'
I. Niang 45+3'
Mahmoud Al Mawas 24'
12/5/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 7Amanat Baghdad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Baghdad19%
×Draw24%
Al Shorta56%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baghdad
0.86
Al Shorta
1.67

Al Shorta creates 94% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 41 away

creates per match

Baghdad
0.94
Al Shorta
1.93

allows per match

Baghdad
1.41
Al Shorta
0.78

finishing

Baghdad+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baghdad ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Baghdad or draw
44%
Baghdad or Al Shorta
76%
Draw or Al Shorta
81%

Winning margin

Baghdad wins by 2+
6%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Baghdad 1+ goals
58%
Baghdad 2+ goals
21%
Baghdad 3+ goals
6%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
81%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
50%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Baghdad (draw refunded)
25%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baghdad at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.78 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baghdad attack 0.94 + Al Shorta defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86

Al Shorta attack 1.93 + Baghdad defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Baghdad scores more
19%
level
24%
Al Shorta scores more
56%

Al Shorta at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
Mahmoud Al Mawas
45+3'
I. Niang
75'
Mateus Totô

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baghdad vs Al Shorta

Al Shorta beat Baghdad 2-1 in Iraqi League on December 5, 2023.

Goals: Mahmoud Al Mawas (24'), I. Niang (45+3'), Mateus Totô (75').

The match was played at Amanat Baghdad Stadium in Bagdad.