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Baghdad vs Al Shorta — Iraqi League 2020

Baghdad
Baghdad
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
12/31/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 16Amanat Baghdad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Baghdad21%
×Draw27%
Al Shorta52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baghdad
0.82
Al Shorta
1.44

Al Shorta creates 76% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 109 away

creates per match

Baghdad
0.85
Al Shorta
1.76

allows per match

Baghdad
1.12
Al Shorta
0.79

finishing

Baghdad+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baghdad ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Baghdad or draw
48%
Baghdad or Al Shorta
73%
Draw or Al Shorta
79%

Winning margin

Baghdad wins by 2+
7%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Baghdad 1+ goals
56%
Baghdad 2+ goals
20%
Baghdad 3+ goals
5%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
76%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
42%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Baghdad (draw refunded)
29%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baghdad at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.12 · 78 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.79 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baghdad attack 0.85 + Al Shorta defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.82

Al Shorta attack 1.76 + Baghdad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Baghdad scores more
21%
level
27%
Al Shorta scores more
52%

Al Shorta at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baghdad vs Al Shorta

Al Shorta beat Baghdad 3-1 in Iraqi League on December 31, 2021.

The match was played at Amanat Baghdad Stadium in Bagdad.