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Baghdad vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya — Iraqi League 2020

Baghdad
Baghdad
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
3/15/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 24Amanat Baghdad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Baghdad24%
×Draw29%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baghdad
0.82
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.25

Al Quwa Al Jawiya creates 52% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 109 away

creates per match

Baghdad
0.86
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.39

allows per match

Baghdad
1.12
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0.79

finishing

Baghdad+0.00on par
Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baghdad ↓

Al Quwa Al Jawiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Baghdad or draw
54%
Baghdad or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
71%
Draw or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
76%

Winning margin

Baghdad wins by 2+
8%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Baghdad 1+ goals
56%
Baghdad 2+ goals
20%
Baghdad 3+ goals
5%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals
71%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals
36%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Baghdad (draw refunded)
34%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baghdad at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.12 · 77 matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.79 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baghdad attack 0.86 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.82

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.39 + Baghdad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Baghdad scores more
24%
level
29%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more
46%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baghdad vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Al Quwa Al Jawiya beat Baghdad 1-0 in Iraqi League on March 15, 2021.

The match was played at Amanat Baghdad Stadium in Bagdad.