Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3–1 Baghdad: Result & Stats

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Baghdad

A. Umar 34'

M. Abu Taha 26'

A. Noor 9' (OG)

H. Talib 65'

3/17/2026

Iraqi League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya59%

×Draw23%

Baghdad18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Quwa Al JawiyaExpected goals in this matchBaghdad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.85

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.75

Baghdad

0.85

Al Quwa Al Jawiya creates 106% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 34 away

1.67

creates per match

0.94

0.76

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.67

Baghdad

0.94

allows per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

0.76

Baghdad

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Baghdad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Quwa Al Jawiya ↓

Baghdad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al Quwa Al Jawiya or draw

82%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya or Baghdad

77%

Draw or Baghdad

41%

Winning margin

Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+

33%

Baghdad wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals

83%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals

52%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals

25%

Baghdad 1+ goals

57%

Baghdad 2+ goals

21%

Baghdad 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)

77%

Baghdad (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.76 · 42 matches

Baghdad away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.67 + Baghdad defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Baghdad attack 0.94 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more

59%

level

23%

Baghdad scores more

18%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. NoorOwn goal

26'

34'

37'

65'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff