Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bagatelle vs Weymouth Wales — Premier League 2026

Bagatelle
Bagatelle
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Weymouth Wales
Weymouth Wales
1/11/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bagatelle17%
×Draw23%
Weymouth Wales60%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bagatelle
0.82
Weymouth Wales
1.77

Weymouth Wales creates 116% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bagatelle
0.88
Weymouth Wales
1.92

allows per match

Bagatelle
1.63
Weymouth Wales
0.77

finishing

Bagatelle+0.00on par
Weymouth Wales+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bagatelle ↓

Weymouth Wales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bagatelle or draw
40%
Bagatelle or Weymouth Wales
77%
Draw or Weymouth Wales
83%

Winning margin

Bagatelle wins by 2+
5%
Weymouth Wales wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Bagatelle 1+ goals
56%
Bagatelle 2+ goals
20%
Bagatelle 3+ goals
5%
Weymouth Wales 1+ goals
83%
Weymouth Wales 2+ goals
53%
Weymouth Wales 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Bagatelle (draw refunded)
22%
Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bagatelle at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Weymouth Wales away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bagatelle attack 0.88 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Weymouth Wales attack 1.92 + Bagatelle defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bagatelle scores more
17%
level
23%
Weymouth Wales scores more
60%

Weymouth Wales at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bagatelle 0–2 Weymouth Wales

Weymouth Wales beat Bagatelle 2-0 in Premier League on January 11, 2026.