Bagatelle 1–1 Kick Start: Result & Stats

Bagatelle

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kick Start

2/17/2026

Premier League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bagatelle27%

×Draw24%

Kick Start49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BagatelleExpected goals in this matchKick Start

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.67

Bagatelle

1.16

Kick Start

1.67

Kick Start creates 44% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

1.92

1.43

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Bagatelle

1.00

Kick Start

1.92

allows per match

Bagatelle

1.43

Kick Start

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bagatelle+0.00on par

Kick Start+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bagatelle ↓

Kick Start →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bagatelle or draw

51%

Bagatelle or Kick Start

76%

Draw or Kick Start

73%

Winning margin

Bagatelle wins by 2+

11%

Kick Start wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Bagatelle 1+ goals

69%

Bagatelle 2+ goals

32%

Bagatelle 3+ goals

11%

Kick Start 1+ goals

81%

Kick Start 2+ goals

50%

Kick Start 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Bagatelle (draw refunded)

35%

Kick Start (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bagatelle at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Kick Start away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bagatelle attack 1.00 + Kick Start defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Kick Start attack 1.92 + Bagatelle defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bagatelle scores more

27%

level

24%

Kick Start scores more

49%

Kick Start at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kick Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff