Bafmeng United 3–0 Unisport Bafang: Result & Stats

Bafmeng United

FT

3 – 0

Unisport Bafang

1/10/2024

Elite Two · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Bafmeng United42%

×Draw29%

Unisport Bafang29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bafmeng UnitedExpected goals in this matchUnisport Bafang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.96

Bafmeng United

1.22

Unisport Bafang

0.96

Bafmeng United creates 27% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 38 away

1.39

creates per match

1.05

0.87

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Bafmeng United

1.39

Unisport Bafang

1.05

allows per match

Bafmeng United

0.87

Unisport Bafang

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bafmeng United+0.00on par

Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bafmeng United ↓

Unisport Bafang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bafmeng United or draw

71%

Bafmeng United or Unisport Bafang

71%

Draw or Unisport Bafang

58%

Winning margin

Bafmeng United wins by 2+

18%

Unisport Bafang wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bafmeng United 1+ goals

70%

Bafmeng United 2+ goals

34%

Bafmeng United 3+ goals

12%

Unisport Bafang 1+ goals

62%

Unisport Bafang 2+ goals

25%

Unisport Bafang 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bafmeng United (draw refunded)

59%

Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bafmeng United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 31 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bafmeng United attack 1.39 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.22

Unisport Bafang attack 1.05 + Bafmeng United defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bafmeng United scores more

42%

level

29%

Unisport Bafang scores more

29%

Bafmeng United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bafmeng United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff