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Bafmeng United vs Renaissance — Elite Two 2020

Bafmeng United
Bafmeng United
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Renaissance
Renaissance
1/3/2024Elite TwoElite Two · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Bafmeng United51%
×Draw27%
Renaissance22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bafmeng United
1.44
Renaissance
0.83

Bafmeng United creates 73% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 14 away

creates per match

Bafmeng United
1.39
Renaissance
0.79

allows per match

Bafmeng United
0.87
Renaissance
1.50

finishing

Bafmeng United+0.00on par
Renaissance+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bafmeng United ↓

Renaissance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bafmeng United or draw
78%
Bafmeng United or Renaissance
73%
Draw or Renaissance
49%

Winning margin

Bafmeng United wins by 2+
26%
Renaissance wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bafmeng United 1+ goals
76%
Bafmeng United 2+ goals
42%
Bafmeng United 3+ goals
18%
Renaissance 1+ goals
56%
Renaissance 2+ goals
20%
Renaissance 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bafmeng United (draw refunded)
70%
Renaissance (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bafmeng United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 31 matches

Renaissance away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bafmeng United attack 1.39 + Renaissance defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Renaissance attack 0.79 + Bafmeng United defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bafmeng United scores more
51%
level
27%
Renaissance scores more
22%

Bafmeng United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bafmeng United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bafmeng United vs Renaissance

Bafmeng United beat Renaissance 5-1 in Elite Two on January 3, 2024.