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Bafmeng United vs Panthère — Elite Two 2020

Bafmeng United
Bafmeng United
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Panthère
Panthère
3/28/2024Elite TwoElite Two · Championship Round - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bafmeng United32%
×Draw25%
Panthère43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bafmeng United
1.28
Panthère
1.53

Panthère creates 20% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 11 away

creates per match

Bafmeng United
1.39
Panthère
2.18

allows per match

Bafmeng United
0.87
Panthère
1.18

finishing

Bafmeng United+0.00on par
Panthère+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bafmeng United ↓

Panthère →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bafmeng United or draw
57%
Bafmeng United or Panthère
75%
Draw or Panthère
68%

Winning margin

Bafmeng United wins by 2+
14%
Panthère wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Bafmeng United 1+ goals
72%
Bafmeng United 2+ goals
37%
Bafmeng United 3+ goals
14%
Panthère 1+ goals
78%
Panthère 2+ goals
45%
Panthère 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bafmeng United (draw refunded)
43%
Panthère (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bafmeng United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 31 matches

Panthère away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bafmeng United attack 1.39 + Panthère defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Panthère attack 2.18 + Bafmeng United defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bafmeng United scores more
32%
level
25%
Panthère scores more
43%

Panthère at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Panthère will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Bafmeng United 0–2 Panthère

Panthère beat Bafmeng United 2-0 in Elite Two on March 28, 2024.