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Bafmeng United vs Foncha ST — Elite Two 2020

Bafmeng United
Bafmeng United
FT
5 – 1
Foncha ST
Foncha ST
6/21/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Relegation Group - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Bafmeng United56%
×Draw24%
Foncha ST21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bafmeng United
1.75
Foncha ST
0.96

Bafmeng United creates 82% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 50 away

creates per match

Bafmeng United
1.39
Foncha ST
1.04

allows per match

Bafmeng United
0.87
Foncha ST
2.12

finishing

Bafmeng United+0.00on par
Foncha ST+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bafmeng United ↓

Foncha ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bafmeng United or draw
79%
Bafmeng United or Foncha ST
76%
Draw or Foncha ST
44%

Winning margin

Bafmeng United wins by 2+
31%
Foncha ST wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bafmeng United 1+ goals
83%
Bafmeng United 2+ goals
52%
Bafmeng United 3+ goals
25%
Foncha ST 1+ goals
62%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
25%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bafmeng United (draw refunded)
73%
Foncha ST (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bafmeng United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 31 matches

Foncha ST away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bafmeng United attack 1.39 + Foncha ST defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.75

Foncha ST attack 1.04 + Bafmeng United defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bafmeng United scores more
56%
level
24%
Foncha ST scores more
21%

Bafmeng United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bafmeng United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Bafmeng United 5–1 Foncha ST

Bafmeng United beat Foncha ST 5-1 in Elite Two on June 21, 2026.