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Badshot Lea vs Aldershot Town — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Badshot Lea
Badshot Lea
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Aldershot Town
Aldershot Town
Unknown 83', 64', 3'
C. Sell 75' (pen)
Trialist I 72', 50'
Trialist F 15'
7/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Westfield Lane Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Badshot Lea6%
×Draw10%
Aldershot Town84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badshot Lea
0.83
Aldershot Town
3.35

Aldershot Town creates 304% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Badshot Lea
0.67
Aldershot Town
3.21

allows per match

Badshot Lea
3.50
Aldershot Town
1.00

finishing

Badshot Lea+0.00on par
Aldershot Town+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badshot Lea ↓

Aldershot Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–29%
0–310%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Badshot Lea or draw
16%
Badshot Lea or Aldershot Town
90%
Draw or Aldershot Town
94%

Winning margin

Badshot Lea wins by 2+
2%
Aldershot Town wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

Badshot Lea 1+ goals
56%
Badshot Lea 2+ goals
20%
Badshot Lea 3+ goals
5%
Aldershot Town 1+ goals
96%
Aldershot Town 2+ goals
84%
Aldershot Town 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Badshot Lea (draw refunded)
7%
Aldershot Town (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badshot Lea at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

Aldershot Town away — creates 3.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badshot Lea attack 0.67 + Aldershot Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Aldershot Town attack 3.21 + Badshot Lea defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Badshot Lea scores more
6%
level
10%
Aldershot Town scores more
84%

Aldershot Town at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Aldershot Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
15'
Trialist F
50'
Trialist I
64'
72'
Trialist I
75'
C. SellPenalty
83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Badshot Lea 3–4 Aldershot Town

Aldershot Town beat Badshot Lea 4-3 in Friendlies Clubs on July 6, 2024.

Goals: ? (3', 64', 83'), Trialist F (15'), Trialist I (50', 72'), C. Sell (75' pen).

The match was played at Westfield Lane Stadium in Wrecclesham.