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Baderan Tehran vs Vista Turbine — Azadegan League 2018

Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
FT
0 – 1
Vista Turbine
Vista Turbine
10/31/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 3Sardare Azadegan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Baderan Tehran49%
×Draw30%
Vista Turbine21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baderan Tehran
1.23
Vista Turbine
0.68

Baderan Tehran creates 81% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Baderan Tehran
1.27
Vista Turbine
0.47

allows per match

Baderan Tehran
0.88
Vista Turbine
1.18

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par
Vista Turbine+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Vista Turbine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw
79%
Baderan Tehran or Vista Turbine
70%
Draw or Vista Turbine
51%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
22%
Vista Turbine wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
71%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
35%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
13%
Vista Turbine 1+ goals
49%
Vista Turbine 2+ goals
15%
Vista Turbine 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
71%
Vista Turbine (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Vista Turbine away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + Vista Turbine defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Vista Turbine attack 0.47 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more
49%
level
30%
Vista Turbine scores more
21%

Baderan Tehran at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baderan Tehran vs Vista Turbine

Vista Turbine beat Baderan Tehran 1-0 in Azadegan League on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Sardare Azadegan Stadium in Qazvin.