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Baderan Tehran vs Shahin Bushehr — Azadegan League 2018

Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
FT
1 – 1
Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
8/19/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 2Shahr-e Qods Stadium (Shahr-e Qods)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Baderan Tehran43%
×Draw31%
Shahin Bushehr26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baderan Tehran
1.11
Shahin Bushehr
0.78

Baderan Tehran creates 42% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 48 away

creates per match

Baderan Tehran
1.27
Shahin Bushehr
0.69

allows per match

Baderan Tehran
0.88
Shahin Bushehr
0.96

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par
Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Shahin Bushehr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw
74%
Baderan Tehran or Shahin Bushehr
69%
Draw or Shahin Bushehr
57%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
18%
Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
67%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
30%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
10%
Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
54%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
18%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
63%
Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.11

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.69 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more
43%
level
31%
Shahin Bushehr scores more
26%

Baderan Tehran at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baderan Tehran 1 – 1 Shahin Bushehr

Baderan Tehran and Shahin Bushehr drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on August 19, 2018.

The match was played at Shahr-e Qods Stadium (Shahr-e Qods).