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Baderan Tehran vs Sepidrood Rasht — Azadegan League 2018

Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
FT
1 – 0
Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
8/8/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 33Ghadir Tehran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Baderan Tehran54%
×Draw27%
Sepidrood Rasht19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baderan Tehran
1.43
Sepidrood Rasht
0.73

Baderan Tehran creates 96% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Baderan Tehran
1.27
Sepidrood Rasht
0.59

allows per match

Baderan Tehran
0.88
Sepidrood Rasht
1.59

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par
Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Sepidrood Rasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw
81%
Baderan Tehran or Sepidrood Rasht
73%
Draw or Sepidrood Rasht
46%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
27%
Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
76%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
42%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
17%
Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
52%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
17%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
74%
Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Sepidrood Rasht away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.59 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more
54%
level
27%
Sepidrood Rasht scores more
19%

Baderan Tehran at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Baderan Tehran 1–0 Sepidrood Rasht

Baderan Tehran beat Sepidrood Rasht 1-0 in Azadegan League on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Ghadir Tehran Stadium in Tehran.