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Baderan Tehran vs Oxin Alborz — Azadegan League 2018

Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
FT
0 – 2
Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
1/24/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 20Naft Tehransar (Tehran)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Baderan Tehran52%
×Draw27%
Oxin Alborz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baderan Tehran
1.40
Oxin Alborz
0.78

Baderan Tehran creates 79% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 49 away

creates per match

Baderan Tehran
1.22
Oxin Alborz
0.73

allows per match

Baderan Tehran
0.84
Oxin Alborz
1.57

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par
Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Oxin Alborz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw
79%
Baderan Tehran or Oxin Alborz
73%
Draw or Oxin Alborz
48%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
25%
Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
75%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
41%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
17%
Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
54%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
18%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
71%
Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.84 · 50 matches

Oxin Alborz away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Oxin Alborz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.40

Oxin Alborz attack 0.73 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more
52%
level
27%
Oxin Alborz scores more
21%

Baderan Tehran at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Baderan Tehran 0–2 Oxin Alborz

Oxin Alborz beat Baderan Tehran 2-0 in Azadegan League on January 24, 2019.

The match was played at Naft Tehransar (Tehran).