Baderan Tehran 2–1 Niroye Zamini: Result & Stats

Baderan Tehran

FT

2 – 1

Niroye Zamini

8/22/2019

Azadegan League · Round 2Shahr-e Qods Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Baderan Tehran44%

×Draw30%

Niroye Zamini26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baderan TehranExpected goals in this matchNiroye Zamini

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.82

Baderan Tehran

1.17

Niroye Zamini

0.82

Baderan Tehran creates 43% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

1.27

creates per match

0.76

0.88

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Baderan Tehran

1.27

Niroye Zamini

0.76

allows per match

Baderan Tehran

0.88

Niroye Zamini

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Niroye Zamini →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw

74%

Baderan Tehran or Niroye Zamini

70%

Draw or Niroye Zamini

56%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+

19%

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals

69%

Baderan Tehran 2+ goals

33%

Baderan Tehran 3+ goals

11%

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals

56%

Niroye Zamini 2+ goals

20%

Niroye Zamini 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)

63%

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Niroye Zamini away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + Niroye Zamini defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Niroye Zamini attack 0.76 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more

44%

level

30%

Niroye Zamini scores more

26%

Baderan Tehran at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff