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Baderan Tehran vs Navad Urmia — Azadegan League 2018

Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
FT
2 – 2
Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
1/10/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 18Naft Tehransar (Tehran)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Baderan Tehran49%
×Draw31%
Navad Urmia20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baderan Tehran
1.18
Navad Urmia
0.63

Baderan Tehran creates 87% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 63 away

creates per match

Baderan Tehran
1.27
Navad Urmia
0.38

allows per match

Baderan Tehran
0.88
Navad Urmia
1.08

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par
Navad Urmia+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Navad Urmia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw
80%
Baderan Tehran or Navad Urmia
69%
Draw or Navad Urmia
51%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
22%
Navad Urmia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
69%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
33%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
12%
Navad Urmia 1+ goals
47%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
13%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
71%
Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Navad Urmia away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + Navad Urmia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Navad Urmia attack 0.38 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more
49%
level
31%
Navad Urmia scores more
20%

Baderan Tehran at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baderan Tehran vs Navad Urmia

Baderan Tehran and Navad Urmia drew 2-2 in Azadegan League on January 10, 2019.

The match was played at Naft Tehransar (Tehran).