Baderan Tehran vs Mes Shahr-e Babak — Azadegan League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 50+ matches
Baderan Tehran38%
Mes Shahr-e Babak29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Baderan Tehran creates 21% more chances
Season form · 50 home / 85 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under73
- Over27
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No65
- Yes35
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Baderan Tehran ↓
Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.84 · 50 matches
Mes Shahr-e Babak away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.74 · 85 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Mes Shahr-e Babak defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.98
Mes Shahr-e Babak attack 0.79 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.81
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Baderan Tehran at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Gol Gohar
Shahin Bushehr
Oxin Alborz
Aluminium Arak
Mes Kerman
SorkhPooshan PakdashtBaderan Tehran
Qashqai Shiraz
Fajr Sepasi
Mes Rafsanjan
Malavan
Navad Urmia
Khooneh Be Khooneh
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari MahshahrIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Baderan Tehran host Mes Shahr-e Babak on Friday, 12 November 2021 at 10:45. The match is part of the Azadegan League 2018/2019 season.
Azadegan League: Baderan Tehran 0–1 Mes Shahr-e Babak
Mes Shahr-e Babak beat Baderan Tehran 1-0 in Azadegan League on November 12, 2021.
The match was played at Sardare Azadegan Stadium in Qazvin.