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Baderan Tehran vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
FT
2 – 1
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
2/1/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 12Martyrs Stadium Islamshahr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Baderan Tehran38%
×Draw33%
Mes Kerman30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baderan Tehran
0.98
Mes Kerman
0.83

Baderan Tehran creates 18% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 116 away

creates per match

Baderan Tehran
1.27
Mes Kerman
0.78

allows per match

Baderan Tehran
0.88
Mes Kerman
0.69

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw
70%
Baderan Tehran or Mes Kerman
67%
Draw or Mes Kerman
62%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
14%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
62%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
26%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
8%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
56%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
20%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
56%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.69 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + Mes Kerman defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.98

Mes Kerman attack 0.78 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more
38%
level
33%
Mes Kerman scores more
30%

Baderan Tehran at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Baderan Tehran 2–1 Mes Kerman

Baderan Tehran beat Mes Kerman 2-1 in Azadegan League on February 1, 2021.

The match was played at Martyrs Stadium Islamshahr in Eslamshahr.