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Baderan Tehran vs Malavan — Azadegan League 2018

Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
FT
1 – 0
Malavan
Malavan
10/30/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 10Shahr-e Qods Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Baderan Tehran44%
×Draw30%
Malavan26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baderan Tehran
1.18
Malavan
0.82

Baderan Tehran creates 44% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 66 away

creates per match

Baderan Tehran
1.27
Malavan
0.76

allows per match

Baderan Tehran
0.88
Malavan
1.09

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par
Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Malavan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw
74%
Baderan Tehran or Malavan
70%
Draw or Malavan
56%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
19%
Malavan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
69%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
33%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
12%
Malavan 1+ goals
56%
Malavan 2+ goals
20%
Malavan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
63%
Malavan (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + Malavan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Malavan attack 0.76 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more
44%
level
30%
Malavan scores more
26%

Baderan Tehran at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Baderan Tehran 1–0 Malavan

Baderan Tehran beat Malavan 1-0 in Azadegan League on October 30, 2019.

The match was played at Shahr-e Qods Stadium in Shahr-e Qods.