Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Baderan Tehran vs Fajr Sepasi — Azadegan League 2018

Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
FT
0 – 1
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
11/18/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 13Naft Tehransar (Tehran)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Baderan Tehran37%
×Draw31%
Fajr Sepasi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baderan Tehran
1.06
Fajr Sepasi
0.96

Baderan Tehran creates 10% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 98 away

creates per match

Baderan Tehran
1.27
Fajr Sepasi
1.03

allows per match

Baderan Tehran
0.88
Fajr Sepasi
0.86

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw
68%
Baderan Tehran or Fajr Sepasi
69%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
63%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
15%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
65%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
29%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
9%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
62%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
25%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
54%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more
37%
level
31%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
32%

Baderan Tehran at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baderan Tehran vs Fajr Sepasi

Fajr Sepasi beat Baderan Tehran 1-0 in Azadegan League on November 18, 2018.

The match was played at Naft Tehransar (Tehran).