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Baderan Tehran vs Esteghlal Mollasani — Azadegan League 2018

Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
FT
2 – 1
Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
6/8/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 28Kargaran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Baderan Tehran47%
×Draw29%
Esteghlal Mollasani25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baderan Tehran
1.29
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.85

Baderan Tehran creates 52% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Baderan Tehran
1.27
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.82

allows per match

Baderan Tehran
0.88
Esteghlal Mollasani
1.31

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par
Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Esteghlal Mollasani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw
75%
Baderan Tehran or Esteghlal Mollasani
71%
Draw or Esteghlal Mollasani
53%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
22%
Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
72%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
37%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
14%
Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
57%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
21%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
66%
Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Esteghlal Mollasani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 0.82 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more
47%
level
29%
Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
25%

Baderan Tehran at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Baderan Tehran 2–1 Esteghlal Mollasani

Baderan Tehran beat Esteghlal Mollasani 2-1 in Azadegan League on June 8, 2021.

The match was played at Kargaran Stadium in Teheran.