Baderan Tehran 0–1 Esteghlal Khuzestan

Baderan Tehran

FT

0 – 1

Esteghlal Khuzestan

1/7/2020

Azadegan League · Round 18Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Baderan Tehran40%

×Draw31%

Esteghlal Khuzestan30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baderan TehranExpected goals in this matchEsteghlal Khuzestan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.91

Baderan Tehran

1.10

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.91

Baderan Tehran creates 21% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 67 away

1.27

creates per match

0.94

0.88

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Baderan Tehran

1.27

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.94

allows per match

Baderan Tehran

0.88

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Esteghlal Khuzestan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw

70%

Baderan Tehran or Esteghlal Khuzestan

69%

Draw or Esteghlal Khuzestan

60%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+

16%

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals

67%

Baderan Tehran 2+ goals

30%

Baderan Tehran 3+ goals

10%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals

60%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals

23%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)

57%

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.94 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.94 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more

40%

level

31%

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more

30%

Baderan Tehran at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff