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Baderan Tehran vs Arvand Khorramshahr FC — Azadegan League 2018

Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
FT
2 – 1
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
9/29/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 6Rah Ahan Stadium (Ekbatan) (Tehrān (Teheran))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Baderan Tehran50%
×Draw28%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baderan Tehran
1.38
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.84

Baderan Tehran creates 64% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 13 away

creates per match

Baderan Tehran
1.22
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.85

allows per match

Baderan Tehran
0.84
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
1.54

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par
Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Arvand Khorramshahr FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw
77%
Baderan Tehran or Arvand Khorramshahr FC
72%
Draw or Arvand Khorramshahr FC
50%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
24%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
75%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
40%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
16%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals
57%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals
21%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
68%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.84 · 50 matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.85 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more
50%
level
28%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more
23%

Baderan Tehran at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baderan Tehran 2 – 1 Arvand Khorramshahr FC

Baderan Tehran beat Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2-1 in Azadegan League on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Rah Ahan Stadium (Ekbatan) (Tehrān (Teheran)).