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Baden vs FC Schaffhausen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Baden
Baden
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
FC Schaffhausen
FC Schaffhausen
2/7/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Baden47%
×Draw20%
FC Schaffhausen33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baden
2.41
FC Schaffhausen
2.03

Baden creates 19% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

creates per match

Baden
2.25
FC Schaffhausen
1.81

allows per match

Baden
2.25
FC Schaffhausen
2.56

finishing

Baden+0.00on par
FC Schaffhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baden ↓

FC Schaffhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Baden or draw
67%
Baden or FC Schaffhausen
80%
Draw or FC Schaffhausen
53%

Winning margin

Baden wins by 2+
28%
FC Schaffhausen wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Baden 1+ goals
91%
Baden 2+ goals
69%
Baden 3+ goals
43%
FC Schaffhausen 1+ goals
87%
FC Schaffhausen 2+ goals
60%
FC Schaffhausen 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Baden (draw refunded)
58%
FC Schaffhausen (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baden at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

FC Schaffhausen away — creates 1.81, concedes 2.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baden attack 2.25 + FC Schaffhausen defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.41

FC Schaffhausen attack 1.81 + Baden defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Baden scores more
47%
level
20%
FC Schaffhausen scores more
33%

Baden at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Baden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Baden
FC
M. Winsauer
Manager: M. Winsauer
Ciriaco Sforza
Manager: Ciriaco Sforza

Match Recap: Baden vs FC Schaffhausen

FC Schaffhausen beat Baden 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 7, 2026.