Baden 3–2 FC Chiasso: Result & Stats

Baden

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

FC Chiasso

D. Giampa 75', 29'

D. Jakovljevic 31'

C. Franek 77' (OG)

F. Gentile 45+2'

8/24/2022

1. Liga Promotion · Round 3Stadion ESP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Baden37%

×Draw24%

FC Chiasso38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BadenExpected goals in this matchFC Chiasso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.51

Baden

1.48

FC Chiasso

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 26 away

1.76

creates per match

1.65

1.38

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Baden

1.76

FC Chiasso

1.65

allows per match

Baden

1.38

FC Chiasso

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baden+0.00on par

FC Chiasso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baden ↓

FC Chiasso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Baden or draw

62%

Baden or FC Chiasso

76%

Draw or FC Chiasso

63%

Winning margin

Baden wins by 2+

18%

FC Chiasso wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Baden 1+ goals

77%

Baden 2+ goals

43%

Baden 3+ goals

19%

FC Chiasso 1+ goals

78%

FC Chiasso 2+ goals

44%

FC Chiasso 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Baden (draw refunded)

49%

FC Chiasso (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baden at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

FC Chiasso away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baden attack 1.76 + FC Chiasso defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC Chiasso attack 1.65 + Baden defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Baden scores more

37%

level

24%

FC Chiasso scores more

38%

FC Chiasso at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Chiasso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

M. Morganella← M. Morganella

29'

D. Giampa

31'

D. Jakovljevic

45+2'

F. Gentile

46'

N. Turi← N. Turi

46'

M. Perissinotto← M. Perissinotto

46'

D. Bezziccheri← C. Said

51'

R. Nivokazi

54'

M. Perissinotto

54'

P. Muff

56'

V. Maksimovic← V. Maksimovic

68'

F. Capone← F. Capone

75'

D. Giampa

77'

C. FranekOwn goal

78'

M. Weber← M. Weber

79'

S. Mattei

87'

L. Ladner

89'

90+4'

90+4'

90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff