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Badalona vs Vic — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Badalona
Badalona
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vic
Vic
1/11/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 17Estadi Municipal de Badalona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Badalona58%
×Draw26%
Vic16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badalona
1.50
Vic
0.65

Badalona creates 131% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Badalona
1.53
Vic
0.59

allows per match

Badalona
0.71
Vic
1.47

finishing

Badalona+0.00on par
Vic+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badalona ↓

Vic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Badalona or draw
84%
Badalona or Vic
74%
Draw or Vic
42%

Winning margin

Badalona wins by 2+
30%
Vic wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Badalona 1+ goals
78%
Badalona 2+ goals
44%
Badalona 3+ goals
19%
Vic 1+ goals
48%
Vic 2+ goals
14%
Vic 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Badalona (draw refunded)
78%
Vic (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badalona at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Vic away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badalona attack 1.53 + Vic defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vic attack 0.59 + Badalona defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Badalona scores more
58%
level
26%
Vic scores more
16%

Badalona at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Badalona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Badalona 2 – 0 Vic

Badalona beat Vic 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 11, 2026.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Badalona in Badalona.