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Badalona II vs Vilassar Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Badalona II
Badalona II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vilassar Mar
Vilassar Mar
1/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 18Estadi Municipal de Badalona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Badalona II45%
×Draw28%
Vilassar Mar27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badalona II
1.34
Vilassar Mar
0.96

Badalona II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 109 away

creates per match

Badalona II
1.49
Vilassar Mar
0.92

allows per match

Badalona II
1.00
Vilassar Mar
1.19

finishing

Badalona II+0.00on par
Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badalona II ↓

Vilassar Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Badalona II or draw
73%
Badalona II or Vilassar Mar
72%
Draw or Vilassar Mar
55%

Winning margin

Badalona II wins by 2+
21%
Vilassar Mar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Badalona II 1+ goals
74%
Badalona II 2+ goals
39%
Badalona II 3+ goals
15%
Vilassar Mar 1+ goals
62%
Vilassar Mar 2+ goals
25%
Vilassar Mar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Badalona II (draw refunded)
63%
Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badalona II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 49 matches

Vilassar Mar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badalona II attack 1.49 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.34

Vilassar Mar attack 0.92 + Badalona II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Badalona II scores more
45%
level
28%
Vilassar Mar scores more
27%

Badalona II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Badalona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Badalona II 1–1 Vilassar Mar

Badalona II and Vilassar Mar drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Badalona in Badalona.