Badalona II 1–3 Vilafranca: Result & Stats

Badalona II

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Vilafranca

12/4/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 13Estadi Municipal de Badalona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Badalona II48%

×Draw26%

Vilafranca26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Badalona IIExpected goals in this matchVilafranca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.06

Badalona II

1.54

Vilafranca

1.06

Badalona II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 74 away

1.49

creates per match

1.12

1.00

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Badalona II

1.49

Vilafranca

1.12

allows per match

Badalona II

1.00

Vilafranca

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Badalona II+0.00on par

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badalona II ↓

Vilafranca →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Badalona II or draw

74%

Badalona II or Vilafranca

74%

Draw or Vilafranca

52%

Winning margin

Badalona II wins by 2+

25%

Vilafranca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Badalona II 1+ goals

79%

Badalona II 2+ goals

45%

Badalona II 3+ goals

20%

Vilafranca 1+ goals

65%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

29%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Badalona II (draw refunded)

65%

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Badalona II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 49 matches

Vilafranca away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Badalona II attack 1.49 + Vilafranca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Vilafranca attack 1.12 + Badalona II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Badalona II scores more

48%

level

26%

Vilafranca scores more

26%

Badalona II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Badalona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff