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Badalona II vs Sabadell II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Badalona II
Badalona II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sabadell II
Sabadell II
12/22/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 16Estadi Municipal de Badalona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Badalona II47%
×Draw24%
Sabadell II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badalona II
1.66
Sabadell II
1.23

Badalona II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 17 away

creates per match

Badalona II
1.49
Sabadell II
1.47

allows per match

Badalona II
1.00
Sabadell II
1.82

finishing

Badalona II+0.00on par
Sabadell II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badalona II ↓

Sabadell II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Badalona II or draw
72%
Badalona II or Sabadell II
76%
Draw or Sabadell II
53%

Winning margin

Badalona II wins by 2+
25%
Sabadell II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Badalona II 1+ goals
81%
Badalona II 2+ goals
49%
Badalona II 3+ goals
23%
Sabadell II 1+ goals
71%
Sabadell II 2+ goals
35%
Sabadell II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Badalona II (draw refunded)
63%
Sabadell II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badalona II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 49 matches

Sabadell II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badalona II attack 1.49 + Sabadell II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.66

Sabadell II attack 1.47 + Badalona II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Badalona II scores more
47%
level
24%
Sabadell II scores more
28%

Badalona II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Badalona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Badalona II 0 – 1 Sabadell II

Sabadell II beat Badalona II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Badalona in Badalona.