Badalona II 1–0 Prat: Result & Stats

Badalona II

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Prat

David Jiménez 59'

11/24/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 12Estadi Municipal de Badalona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Badalona II46%

×Draw27%

Prat27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Badalona IIExpected goals in this matchPrat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.00

Badalona II

1.39

Prat

1.00

Badalona II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 34 away

1.49

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Badalona II

1.49

Prat

1.00

allows per match

Badalona II

1.00

Prat

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Badalona II+0.00on par

Prat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badalona II ↓

Prat →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Badalona II or draw

73%

Badalona II or Prat

73%

Draw or Prat

54%

Winning margin

Badalona II wins by 2+

22%

Prat wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Badalona II 1+ goals

75%

Badalona II 2+ goals

40%

Badalona II 3+ goals

16%

Prat 1+ goals

63%

Prat 2+ goals

26%

Prat 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Badalona II (draw refunded)

63%

Prat (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Badalona II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 49 matches

Prat away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Badalona II attack 1.49 + Prat defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Prat attack 1.00 + Badalona II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Badalona II scores more

46%

level

27%

Prat scores more

27%

Badalona II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Badalona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

Julen Álvarez← Pol Moles

59'

David Jiménez

62'

Dani Homet← Álvaro Vázquez

62'

Y. Antúnez← S. Bermúdez

67'

Miguel Fernández← Álex Sánchez

67'

Alejandro Pino← Javier García

77'

Salva Torreño← Héctor Rodríguez

78'

Genís Blasco← Gonzalo Pereira

80'

Juan Valverde← David Jiménez

80'

Marc Alegre← Toni Larrosa

Badalona

Prat

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Jordi López

62'▲Dani Homet←▼Álvaro Vázquez

62'▲Y. Antúnez←▼S. Bermúdez

78'▲Genís Blasco←▼Gonzalo Pereira

80'▲Juan Valverde←▼David Jiménez

80'▲Marc Alegre←▼Toni Larrosa

Badalona II substitutes

HometAntúnezBlascoValverdeAlegre

Manager: Miguel Ángel Motoso

36'▲Julen Álvarez←▼Pol Moles

67'▲Miguel Fernández←▼Álex Sánchez

67'▲Alejandro Pino←▼Javier García

77'▲Salva Torreño←▼Héctor Rodríguez

Prat substitutes

ÁlvarezFernándezPinoTorreño