Badalona II 0–2 Olot: Result & Stats

Badalona II

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Olot

Marc Mas 53'

Moha Chabboura 41'

2/25/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 22Estadi Municipal de Badalona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Badalona II32%

×Draw28%

Olot40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Badalona IIExpected goals in this matchOlot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.26

Badalona II

1.11

Olot

1.26

Olot creates 14% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 33 away

1.49

creates per match

1.52

1.00

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Badalona II

1.49

Olot

1.52

allows per match

Badalona II

1.00

Olot

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Badalona II+0.00on par

Olot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badalona II ↓

Olot →

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Badalona II or draw

60%

Badalona II or Olot

72%

Draw or Olot

68%

Winning margin

Badalona II wins by 2+

13%

Olot wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Badalona II 1+ goals

67%

Badalona II 2+ goals

30%

Badalona II 3+ goals

10%

Olot 1+ goals

72%

Olot 2+ goals

36%

Olot 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Badalona II (draw refunded)

45%

Olot (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Badalona II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 49 matches

Olot away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Badalona II attack 1.49 + Olot defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.11

Olot attack 1.52 + Badalona II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Badalona II scores more

32%

level

28%

Olot scores more

40%

Olot at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Moha Chabboura

53'

Marc Mas

56'

Adrián Rivas← David Jiménez

56'

Jordi Ortega← Dani Homet

56'

Juan Valverde← David Batanero

56'

Albert Blázquez← Arnau Forés

66'

Kilian Durán← Albert Estellés

68'

Carlos Martinez← Toni Larrosa

69'

Pablo Ufano← Guillem Terma

69'

Jordi Manzano← Moha Chabboura

87'

Marc Roquet← Marc Mas

87'

Marco Gil← Joan Maynau

Badalona

Olot

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Mas

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Santi Álvarez

56'▲Adrián Rivas←▼David Jiménez

56'▲Jordi Ortega←▼Dani Homet

56'▲Juan Valverde←▼David Batanero

66'▲Kilian Durán←▼Albert Estellés

68'▲Carlos Martinez←▼Toni Larrosa

Badalona II substitutes

RivasOrtegaValverdeDuránMartinez

Manager: Pedro Dólera

56'▲Albert Blázquez←▼Arnau Forés

69'▲Pablo Ufano←▼Guillem Terma

69'▲Jordi Manzano←▼Moha Chabboura

87'▲Marc Roquet←▼Marc Mas

87'▲Marco Gil←▼Joan Maynau

Olot substitutes

BlázquezUfanoManzanoRoquetGil

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Badalona II 0–2 Olot

Olot beat Badalona II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 25, 2024.

Goals: Moha Chabboura (41'), Marc Mas (53').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Badalona in Badalona.

Badalona II vs Olot — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Badalona II 0–2 Olot