Badalona II 2–0 L'Hospitalet: Result & Stats

Badalona II

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

L'Hospitalet

David Jiménez 22'

Albert Estellés 7'

2/16/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 22Estadi Municipal de Badalona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Badalona II40%

×Draw26%

L'Hospitalet34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Badalona IIExpected goals in this matchL'Hospitalet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.25

Badalona II

1.38

L'Hospitalet

1.25

Badalona II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 95 away

1.49

creates per match

1.51

1.00

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Badalona II

1.49

L'Hospitalet

1.51

allows per match

Badalona II

1.00

L'Hospitalet

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Badalona II+0.00on par

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badalona II ↓

L'Hospitalet →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Badalona II or draw

66%

Badalona II or L'Hospitalet

74%

Draw or L'Hospitalet

60%

Winning margin

Badalona II wins by 2+

19%

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Badalona II 1+ goals

75%

Badalona II 2+ goals

40%

Badalona II 3+ goals

16%

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals

71%

L'Hospitalet 2+ goals

36%

L'Hospitalet 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Badalona II (draw refunded)

54%

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Badalona II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 49 matches

L'Hospitalet away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.27 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Badalona II attack 1.49 + L'Hospitalet defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.38

L'Hospitalet attack 1.51 + Badalona II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Badalona II scores more

40%

level

26%

L'Hospitalet scores more

34%

Badalona II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Badalona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Albert Estellés

22'

David Jiménez

46'

Sehou Sarr← S. One

46'

Aaron Jaye← José Damián

46'

Adán Jesús← Nil Valero

63'

Alberto Cuéllar← G. Fassani

63'

Ot Serrano← David Jiménez

73'

Mario González← Toni Larrosa

77'

Josep Serrano← Adri Díaz

84'

Rubi← Mamau

87'

Álex Rico← Oscar Tarensi

87'

Álvaro Vázquez← Jaume Piñol

Badalona

L'Hospitalet

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Jordi López

63'▲Alberto Cuéllar←▼G. Fassani

63'▲Ot Serrano←▼David Jiménez

73'▲Mario González←▼Toni Larrosa

87'▲Álex Rico←▼Oscar Tarensi

87'▲Álvaro Vázquez←▼Jaume Piñol

Badalona II substitutes

CuéllarSerranoGonzálezRicoVázquez

Manager: Jaume Delgado

46'▲Sehou Sarr←▼S. One

46'▲Aaron Jaye←▼José Damián

46'▲Adán Jesús←▼Nil Valero

77'▲Josep Serrano←▼Adri Díaz

84'▲Rubi←▼Mamau

L'Hospitalet substitutes

SarrJayeJesúsSerranoRubi

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Badalona II 2–0 L'Hospitalet

Badalona II beat L'Hospitalet 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 16, 2025.

Goals: Albert Estellés (7'), David Jiménez (22').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Badalona in Badalona.

Badalona II vs L'Hospitalet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Badalona II 2–0 L'Hospitalet