Badajoz 5–3 Villarrobledo: Result & Stats

Badajoz

FT

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Villarrobledo

Gorka Santamaría 87' (pen)

Ernest Forgàs 74'

Dani Aquino 41'

Álex Corredera 11'

Tomás Sánchez 4'

Nacho Huertas 54' (pen), 9'

G. Lucas 13'

11/22/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 5Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Badajoz70%

×Draw20%

Villarrobledo10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BadajozExpected goals in this matchVillarrobledo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.55

Badajoz

1.92

Villarrobledo

0.55

Badajoz creates 249% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.92

creates per match

0.69

0.42

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Badajoz

1.92

Villarrobledo

0.69

allows per match

Badajoz

0.42

Villarrobledo

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Badajoz+0.00on par

Villarrobledo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz ↓

Villarrobledo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Badajoz or draw

90%

Badajoz or Villarrobledo

80%

Draw or Villarrobledo

30%

Winning margin

Badajoz wins by 2+

44%

Villarrobledo wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Badajoz 1+ goals

85%

Badajoz 2+ goals

57%

Badajoz 3+ goals

30%

Villarrobledo 1+ goals

42%

Villarrobledo 2+ goals

11%

Villarrobledo 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Badajoz (draw refunded)

88%

Villarrobledo (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.42 · 12 matches

Villarrobledo away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz attack 1.92 + Villarrobledo defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.92

Villarrobledo attack 0.69 + Badajoz defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Badajoz scores more

70%

level

20%

Villarrobledo scores more

10%

Badajoz at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

9'

11'

13'

27'

Li Jinqing← Chato

41'

Dani Aquino

46'

David Concha← Jesús Clemente

54'

Nacho HuertasPenalty

63'

Ernest Forgàs← Adilson

63'

Íñigo Alayeto← Otegui

74'

Ernest Forgàs

77'

Álex Jiménez← Nacho Huertas

83'

Aitor Pascual← Dani Fernández

83'

Gorka Santamaría← Dani Aquino

83'

Álex Fernández← Carmelo

86'

Li Jinqing

87'

Gorka SantamaríaPenalty

Badajoz

Villarrobledo

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Aquino

Manager: Fernando Estévez

46'▲David Concha←▼Jesús Clemente

63'▲Ernest Forgàs←▼Adilson

63'▲Íñigo Alayeto←▼Otegui

83'▲Aitor Pascual←▼Dani Fernández

83'▲Gorka Santamaría←▼Dani Aquino

Badajoz substitutes

ConchaForgàsAlayetoPascualSantamaríaBarriCedenillaGuzmánRoyo

Manager: Edu Pérez

27'▲Li Jinqing←▼Chato

77'▲Álex Jiménez←▼Nacho Huertas

83'▲Álex Fernández←▼Carmelo

Villarrobledo substitutes

JinqingJiménezFernándezNievesLatorre

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Badajoz 5–3 Villarrobledo

Badajoz beat Villarrobledo 5-3 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 22, 2020.

Goals: Tomás Sánchez (4'), Nacho Huertas (9', 54' pen), Álex Corredera (11'), G. Lucas (13'), Dani Aquino (41'), Ernest Forgàs (74'), Gorka Santamaría (87' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero in Badajoz.

Badajoz vs Villarrobledo — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Badajoz 5–3 Villarrobledo