Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Badajoz vs Villafranca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Badajoz
Badajoz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Villafranca
Villafranca
2/8/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 21Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Badajoz56%
×Draw24%
Villafranca20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badajoz
1.68
Villafranca
0.89

Badajoz creates 89% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 81 away

creates per match

Badajoz
2.09
Villafranca
1.16

allows per match

Badajoz
0.62
Villafranca
1.27

finishing

Badajoz+0.00on par
Villafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz ↓

Villafranca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Badajoz or draw
80%
Badajoz or Villafranca
76%
Draw or Villafranca
44%

Winning margin

Badajoz wins by 2+
31%
Villafranca wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Badajoz 1+ goals
81%
Badajoz 2+ goals
50%
Badajoz 3+ goals
24%
Villafranca 1+ goals
59%
Villafranca 2+ goals
22%
Villafranca 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Badajoz (draw refunded)
74%
Villafranca (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

Villafranca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz attack 2.09 + Villafranca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.68

Villafranca attack 1.16 + Badajoz defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Badajoz scores more
56%
level
24%
Villafranca scores more
20%

Badajoz at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Badajoz 1–0 Villafranca

Badajoz beat Villafranca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 8, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero in Badajoz.