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Badajoz vs Trujillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Badajoz
Badajoz
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Trujillo
Trujillo
12/15/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 15Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Badajoz59%
×Draw24%
Trujillo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badajoz
1.73
Trujillo
0.82

Badajoz creates 111% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 92 away

creates per match

Badajoz
2.09
Trujillo
1.03

allows per match

Badajoz
0.62
Trujillo
1.37

finishing

Badajoz+0.00on par
Trujillo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz ↓

Trujillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Badajoz or draw
82%
Badajoz or Trujillo
76%
Draw or Trujillo
41%

Winning margin

Badajoz wins by 2+
33%
Trujillo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Badajoz 1+ goals
82%
Badajoz 2+ goals
52%
Badajoz 3+ goals
25%
Trujillo 1+ goals
56%
Trujillo 2+ goals
20%
Trujillo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Badajoz (draw refunded)
77%
Trujillo (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

Trujillo away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz attack 2.09 + Trujillo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.73

Trujillo attack 1.03 + Badajoz defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Badajoz scores more
59%
level
24%
Trujillo scores more
18%

Badajoz at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Badajoz vs Trujillo

Badajoz beat Trujillo 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero in Badajoz.