Badajoz 1–2 Real Valladolid II: Result & Stats

Badajoz

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Real Valladolid II

Miguel Núñez 55'

Slavy 45', 6'

1/8/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Badajoz45%

×Draw27%

Real Valladolid II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BadajozExpected goals in this matchReal Valladolid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.04

Badajoz

1.40

Real Valladolid II

1.04

Badajoz creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 31 away

1.18

creates per match

1.16

0.92

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Badajoz

1.18

Real Valladolid II

1.16

allows per match

Badajoz

0.92

Real Valladolid II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Badajoz+0.00on par

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz ↓

Real Valladolid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Badajoz or draw

72%

Badajoz or Real Valladolid II

73%

Draw or Real Valladolid II

55%

Winning margin

Badajoz wins by 2+

22%

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Badajoz 1+ goals

75%

Badajoz 2+ goals

41%

Badajoz 3+ goals

17%

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

65%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

28%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Badajoz (draw refunded)

62%

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Real Valladolid II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz attack 1.18 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.40

Real Valladolid II attack 1.16 + Badajoz defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Badajoz scores more

45%

level

27%

Real Valladolid II scores more

28%

Badajoz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

12'

45'

55'

59'

Roberto Arroyo← Mario Maroto

60'

L. Rosa

64'

Dani Aquino← Adri Cuevas

73'

Apa← Dali

74'

Adilson← Jesús Clemente

76'

M. Nunez

78'

Barri

79'

Castri← Slavy

79'

S. Erimuya← Kike Ríos

89'

A. Otegui

90'

Zelu← Gorka Pérez

Badajoz

Real

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Óscar Cano

64'▲Dani Aquino←▼Adri Cuevas

74'▲Adilson←▼Jesús Clemente

90'▲Zelu←▼Gorka Pérez

Badajoz substitutes

AquinoAdilsonZeluPascualCrettazTorresTruyolsJosemaBenito

Manager: Júlio Baptista

59'▲Roberto Arroyo←▼Mario Maroto

73'▲Apa←▼Dali

79'▲Castri←▼Slavy

79'▲S. Erimuya←▼Kike Ríos

Real Valladolid II substitutes

ArroyoApaCastriErimuyaAcevesJoséMorenoLópezFresnedaPalomeque