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Badajoz vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Badajoz
Badajoz
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
4/11/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Badajoz56%
×Draw24%
Real Madrid II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badajoz
1.67
Real Madrid II
0.88

Badajoz creates 90% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Badajoz
1.92
Real Madrid II
1.33

allows per match

Badajoz
0.42
Real Madrid II
1.42

finishing

Badajoz+0.00on par
Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz ↓

Real Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Badajoz or draw
80%
Badajoz or Real Madrid II
76%
Draw or Real Madrid II
44%

Winning margin

Badajoz wins by 2+
31%
Real Madrid II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Badajoz 1+ goals
81%
Badajoz 2+ goals
50%
Badajoz 3+ goals
23%
Real Madrid II 1+ goals
59%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
22%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Badajoz (draw refunded)
74%
Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.42 · 12 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz attack 1.92 + Real Madrid II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.67

Real Madrid II attack 1.33 + Badajoz defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Badajoz scores more
56%
level
24%
Real Madrid II scores more
20%

Badajoz at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Badajoz 2–0 Real Madrid II

Badajoz beat Real Madrid II 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero in Badajoz.