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Badajoz vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Badajoz
Badajoz
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
5/28/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 38Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Badajoz45%
×Draw28%
Rayo Majadahonda27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badajoz
1.32
Rayo Majadahonda
0.94

Badajoz creates 40% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 72 away

creates per match

Badajoz
1.18
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

Badajoz
0.92
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

Badajoz+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Badajoz or draw
73%
Badajoz or Rayo Majadahonda
72%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
55%

Winning margin

Badajoz wins by 2+
21%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Badajoz 1+ goals
73%
Badajoz 2+ goals
38%
Badajoz 3+ goals
15%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
61%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
24%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Badajoz (draw refunded)
63%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz attack 1.18 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.32

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Badajoz defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Badajoz scores more
45%
level
28%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
27%

Badajoz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Badajoz 1–2 Rayo Majadahonda

Rayo Majadahonda beat Badajoz 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero in Badajoz.